Why coups are on the resurgence in Africa

The African Union (AU) has entrenched through its founding legal instrument, the Constitutive Act (2000), the promotion of human and people’s rights, democratic principles and institutions, popular participation and good governance. It has also affirmed the sacrosanct principle of condemnation and rejection of unconstitutional changes of governments in its Constitutive Act.

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The OAU had determined through the Lomé Declaration of July 2000 (Framework on OAU Response to Unconstitutional Changes of Government) that the following situations could be defined as unconstitutional change of government: (i) military coup d’etat against a democratically elected government; (ii) intervention by mercenaries to replace a democratically elected government; (iii) replacement of democratically elected governments by armed dissident groups and rebel movements; (iv) the refusal by an incumbent government to relinquish power to the winning party after free, fair and regular elections.

This definition was affirmed in totality by the AU through the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (2007). In addition the African Charter proclaimed that any amendment or revision of the constitution or legal instruments, which is an infringement on the principles of democratic change of government shall be construed as a situation of unconstitutional change of government.

The Africa Governance Report 2023 on Unconstitutional Changes of Government (AGR 2023) prepared by the African Peer Review Mechanism reveals that from 2003 till 2022 there has been 18 successful unconstitutional changes of government on the continent. The military coup of 26 July in Niger was the 19th incidence of unconstitutional change of government. In essence, from 2019 to 2023 there has been seven successful military coups on the continent, with Niger as the latest military coup.

Two of the unconstitutional changes of government during this period were military coups within a military coup. Specifically, since 2019 military coups occurred in the following countries on the continent: Sudan (April 2019); Mali (August 2020); Mali (May 2021); Guinea (September 2021), Burkina Faso (January 2022); Burkina Faso (September 2022) and Niger (July 2023).

The UNDP Report, Soldiers and Citizens, “Military Coups and the Need for Democratic Renewal in Africa,” (2023) asserts that military coups that took place between 2019 and 2022 represents 229% increase in coup incidence over the previous 20 year period. The report accurately asserts that coups, by definition, undermine constitutional rule, entrench bad governance, and create conditions that undermine human rights and civic freedom, including encouraging future coups. The assertion echoes decisions of the AU Assembly of Heads of State and Government (February 2022) and those of the AU Peace and Security Council (January 2022) on the subject matter when they expressed deep concern over the alarming resurgence of military coups d’état which undermine democracy, peace, security and stability in the continent.

The African Governance Report 2023 has identified dynamics and phenomena considered to be the catalysts, causes and triggers of UCG in Africa. These are: (i) integrity of democratic elections; (ii) diversity management and human rights; (iii) constitutional order and state legitimacy; (iv) economic governance and public sector accountability; and finally, (vii) popular uprising, militarisation and terrorism. The UNDP Report Soldiers and Citizens, “Military Coups and the Need for Democratic Renewal in Africa,” (2023) has characterised causes of unconstitutional change of government into structural, proximate and trigger causes.

The trigger causes have been identified as the death of a president that had ruled for a long time, attacks on military personnel, behind the scenes political dynamics. Proximate factors include protracted significant insecurity, rising frustration with government performance (corruption, insecurity, economic difficulties, and disappointment over incumbents’ manipulation of constitutional provisions to extend their tenure and power etc), democratic dysfunction that include failure of governments including democratically elected governments to provide for citizens needs and aspirations, unprecedented confluence of geopolitical shifts, economic challenges, digital advancements, environmental concerns and socio-cultural dynamics.

Structural factors include the political, military involvement into politics, state fragility and questions of legitimacy (lack of robust, political , cohesion and governance conditions countries ranking low in governance and fragility indices) and lack of inclusive economic growth (mineral wealth exploited in a way that leads to pernicious development outcomes, stagnant growth, inequality and exclusion of youth and women, governance deficits, higher levels of state military expenditure and exclusionary pattens economic growth).

The AU Peace and Security Council (April 2014), noted that unconstitutional changes of government and popular uprisings were deeply rooted in governance deficiencies. It stressed that in situations of greed, selfishness, mismanagement of diversity, mismanagement of opportunity, marginalisation, abuse of human rights, refusal to accept electoral defeat, manipulation of constitution, as well as unconstitutional review of constitution to serve narrow interest and corruption, among other factors, are potent triggers for unconstitutional changes of government and popular uprisings. In this context, they stressed the need for AU Member States to deepen the culture of democracy, accountability, inclusiveness, participation, reconciliation, and good governance to foster peace and stability on the continent.

An analysis of both the AU Peace and Security Council statement, Africa Governance Report 2023 and the UNDP Report Soldiers and Citizens, “Military Coups and the Need for Democratic Renewal in Africa,” (2023) is reinforced by authoritative indicators and indices which provide the most accurate picture, based on data and not personal views and political bias. All the five African countries that are currently under military rule ranked low in democracy, governance and development indices before the military coup. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Democracy Index assesses the state of democracy worldwide based on five categories: (i) electoral process and pluralism; (ii) functioning of government; (iii) political participation, (iv) political culture and civil liberties. Based on its scores and a range of indicators within these categories, each country is then classified as of four types of regime: “full democracy”, “flawed democracy”, ‘hybrid regime” or “authoritarian regime.”

The EIU, Democracy Index of 2018, had classified Sudan as an “authoritarian regime” with an overall score of 2.15 out of 10. Mali had been categorised in 2019 as a “hybrid regime “with an overall score of 4.92. Guinea in 2020 has been ranked as an “authoritarian regime” with an overall score 3.08 Burkina Faso in 2021 was grouped among the “authoritarian regimes” with an overall score of 3.84. Niger in 2022 was characterised as an “authoritarian regime”, with an overall score of 3.73. The Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) which measures country performance in delivering governance across four key components: Safety & Rule of Law, Participation & Human Rights, Sustainable Economic Opportunity and Human Development in its 2020 findings scored Sudan at 32.5% in overall governance of the four components. Mali was scored 46.6%, Guinea was ranked scored at 42.5% and Burkina Faso was scored at 54%. Niger was scored at 47.8. The Afrobarometer citizens survey in 36 countries on the continent (2021-2022) on ‘should the military intervene when elected leaders abuse power’ revealed that in Mali 82% favoured intervention, in Burkina Faso it was 66%, in Guinea it was 68%, Sudan it was 58% and Niger it was 67%.

The African Centre for Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD), publication “Military Coups in Africa: A Continuation of Politics by Other Means?” (August 2022) has also argued that military coups in Africa are best understood through the lens of neocolonialism. They assert that given the longstanding link between foreign powers and insecurities in Africa, one cannot ignore the involvement of both local and foreign actors in the current wave of military coups in Africa. Most sub-Saharan African states can still be classified as neocolonial since they continue to depend heavily on external support, including military and economic aid, for their survival. Against this backdrop, foreign powers find it relatively easy to fuel political and socioeconomic problems, including coups in sub-Saharan Africa, whenever this will help advance their interests.

It is on this basis that the resurgence of unconstitutional changes of government in Africa have to be understood as a confluence of catalysts, structural and proximate causes as well as trigger causes that are also linked to the shifting geo-political dynamics linked to neo-colonial forces. Authoritarian regimes whose leaders fail to ensure safety of their citizens, respect for human rights and the rule of law as well as sustainable economic opportunities and human development and lack legitimacy in the eyes of the people as likely to face military coups.

Advocate Batlokoa Makong is a distinguished legal professional with a robust background in international law, governance, international relations, politics, diplomacy, and peace and security. He is the Acting Chief of Staff at the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) to the African Union (AU).

Batlokoa Makong

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